Illustration: Red Square in ruins under a smoky sunset, with a wrecked tank and burning stacks of rubles

Russian Losses

Data updated 2026-10-22

Federal debt rose from 20.9T rubles at the end of 2021 to 35.1T at the end of 2025, and interest is planned to take 8.8% of federal spending in 2026. The key rate stands at 14.0%.

Latest readings

Most recent official figure for each barometer, with its date.

Oil money

What the war economy earns from oil and gas, as Ukrainian strikes and sanctions bite.

Frozen reserves

Russian central bank reserves held in the West have been frozen since 2022. The profits they earn now help fund Ukraine.

Fiscal cliff gauge

How many months the liquid part of the National Wealth Fund (its cash and gold, Russia’s budget cushion) could cover the federal deficit on its own, with no new borrowing. Under six months is the danger zone; zero is the cliff.

Months of deficit the cushion covers
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Liquid fund
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Deficit per month (2026 pace)
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Months of cover

Liquid fund ÷ monthly deficit. The dashed line is the straight-line trend of the last two readings, not a forecast.

Liquid National Wealth Fund

Trillions of rubles; the 2025 bump is an oil-revenue top-up.

Not a default countdown: Russia now funds most of its deficit by selling domestic bonds (OFZ), and still has central bank reserves outside the fund. Hitting zero would mean losing the cushion — leaving more borrowing at today’s high rates, tax rises, spending cuts or printing money.

Gold reserves

Gold is one of the few reserves sanctions can’t freeze, because it is stored in Russia. After two decades of buying, the central bank has sold gold every month since December 2025.

Central bank gold holdings

Tonnes; the 2026 decline is the first sustained selling in two decades.

Reserve fund (NWF) gold

Tonnes held by the National Wealth Fund.

History, 2019 to now

The dashed line marks the full-scale invasion. Lighter bars are 2026 plans or year-to-date readings, not full-year results.

Russian stock market — MOEX Russia Index, last 5 years

Month-end closes in rubles (October 2026 is the latest close). The index is now 41% below its 4,150 month-end peak.

Ruble vs US dollar — last 5 years

Rubles per US dollar, month-end (October 2026 is today’s Bank of Russia official rate of 81.97 ₽). Higher means a weaker ruble.

Share of the federal budget going to the military

2019–2023: official “national defence” line (some war spending was hidden elsewhere). 2024 on: Janis Kluge’s estimate including classified lines; 2025 is Jan–Sep, 2026 is the first quarter.

Military spending vs the rest of the federal budget

Trillions of rubles, nominal. 2026 is a projection (military: budget plus reported overrun; total: January–July pace).

GDP (USD)

Nominal rubles converted at the year’s average rate.

Real GDP growth

Percent change on the year before.

Key interest rate

Every Bank of Russia decision since 2020.

Inflation

December on December; 2026 is the latest reading.

Federal government debt

Trillions of rubles at year-end; 2026 is the government’s plan.

Debt to GDP

Federal debt as a share of GDP.

Federal budget balance

Surplus (+) or deficit (−) as a share of GDP.

Interest as a share of federal spending

Debt service ÷ total federal spending.

Oil and gas budget revenues

Trillions of rubles.

All fiscal barometers by year

Official Russian figures (Rosstat, Finance Ministry, Accounts Chamber, Bank of Russia). Some years have since been revised.

YearStatus GDP (T₽)GDP ($B)Real growth Key rate (year-end)Inflation (Dec) Debt (T₽)Debt/GDPBudget balance Interest (T₽)Interest shareMilitary shareMilitary (T₽)Other spending (T₽)Oil & gas (T₽)₽ per $ (avg)

Reading these numbers

These are Russia’s own official statistics. Since 2022 Russia has stopped publishing some data (detailed trade, parts of the budget), and outside economists debate how far GDP and inflation figures can be relied on. Debt to GDP stays low by international standards because Russia is largely shut out of foreign borrowing; the strain shows instead in the rising cost of interest, the shrinking liquid reserve fund and persistent deficits.

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